The dust has barely settled on the 2020 U.S. election, and at this point we’re still only going on the assumption that Joe Biden has won the race to the White House – no doubt Donald Trump has a trick or two left up his sleeve yet.
But, already, attention is turning to the 2024 election race, with more questions than answers. Will Joe Biden run for a second term? Will he hand over the reins to Kamala Harris within his first term? Will Donald Trump run for office again? If not, who will lead the Republican Party into battle?
America, I’m honored that you have chosen me to lead our great country.
The work ahead of us will be hard, but I promise you this: I will be a President for all Americans — whether you voted for me or not.
I will keep the faith that you have placed in me. pic.twitter.com/moA9qhmjn8
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) November 7, 2020
The leading sportsbooks have already opened up their politics betting markets linked to that election in 2024, and there are some rather interesting early entries that are well worth documenting.
So here are the leading contenders for the White House in 2024…
This isn’t a misprint: Kamala Harris is the favorite to win the 2024 U.S. election with sportsbooks odds of +350.
The reason for that is simply because Joe Biden is likely to hand over the keys to the White House to his VP at some point during his presidency, either a couple of years in or just prior to the election process commencing.
Harris is a highly respected litigator in the US, and she may well bring the added bonus of regaining the Latin vote in Florida – if she can, that would strengthen the Democrats’ hopes of re-election in four years’ time.
While age should never hold someone back, within reason, Joe Biden will nearly be 82 by the time the next election comes around.
And so only the most optimistic of bettors will be adding him to their betslip at +500, because a second term in office would take him to just shy of 86 years of age.
Biden has already taken the mantle as the oldest president in history at the time of his inauguration (assuming everything goes to plan, of course), and so another term appears to be out of the question.
Depending on your political persuasion, this will either be great news or a catastrophe – Donald Trump has not ruled out running for president again in 2024.
Age would be a factor in that, but be under no illusions, Trump has a huge base of supporters out there – more than 73 million people voted for him in 2020 – and there would be a groundswell of support for a candidate who is perhaps best as a snarling contender rather than as the incumbent in the presidential race.
The Republicans had reportedly been hoping to ‘reset’ ahead of 2024, but Trump’s popularity cannot be overlooked.
Both Mike Pence and Nikki Haley are prominent in the next president betting market, but both will need to find a way past Trump if he intends to run for office once more.
As his former VP, Pence is considered the most likely candidate and, if he could secure a seal of approval from Trump, he would solidify his support with grassroots supporters of the Republican Party.
Best of the Rest
Bettors with slightly masochistic tendencies can secure odds of +2500 on either Ivanka Trump or Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson winning the 2024 election – the former would seemingly have no chance, while The Rock has offered his support to both Biden and Harris already.
Elsewhere, Kanye West’s half-hearted efforts in 2020 haven’t stopped the sportsbooks pricing him at +6500 to prevail in four years’ time, while the likes of Oprah Winfrey and Hillary Clinton (both +10000) seem to be token gestures to add depth to the betting.
It could well be that we see Kamala Harris and Donald Trump go toe-to-toe in 2024…who would come out on top in that battle?